value bets, valuebet betting strategies and value
bet help to make money
Value bets are those, which are worth to bet them.A
bet is a value bet, if the odd is inflated in relation
to the probability.
A very simplified example:
If you think that the FC Bayern will win the Bundesliga
match against the HSV with a probability of 50%.Granted
that bookie X offers 2,10 for a Bayern win. A probability
of 50% would require a odd of 2,00 for a balanced result.
So the odd 2,10 is too high related to the probability
and this is a value bet.
In order to calculate the probabilities, you have to
do lots of research and a good sure instinct is required.You
should study statistics (tables, H2H etc.) as well as
current happenings (injured players, form etc.).A statistic
based probability evaluation you’ll find at our
odds comparisson section.
The value of a particular odd can be calculated with
the “Kelly formula”.
With our “Kelly calculator” it’s very
easy to do so.Kelly formula to research the value:
Value = (Odd * probability in %) –1 /
(odd – 1)
If the outcome is positive, it’s a value bet!
Example:
You calculate the probability for a soccer match with
65% for a home win. Now you find an odd of 1,56 for
this outcome at a particular sportsbook. This data you
have to apply in the formula or our Kelly calculator
and you get the value of this bet:
Value = (1,56 * 0,65)-1 / (1,65-1)
Value = 0,0251
This number you have to multiply with your total betting
stake, and you place your bet.
Example:
Your total betting amount is € 1000.-Now you calculated
for the home win above a value of 0,0251.If you multiply
this number with your total betting amount, you know
the stake you should bet on this outcome: 1000 * 0,0215
= 21,50. In this case, you should bet € 21,50.-
on a home win.
Our preferred Surebet providers:
Intertops: www.intertops.com
Bet at Home: www.bet-at-home.com
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